Fade Betting
Tom Brady is playing in the Super Bowl for the 10th time this year, but it won't be with the New England Patriots. That's still weird to think about.
Sometimes, you’ve got to fade the public. There’s no better opportunity to fade the public than the Super Bowl, which is easily the most bet on sporting event of the year. When fading the public on Super Bowl Sunday, my general strategy is to fade “Over” and “Yes” props on the game and individual players. Fading the public is simply betting against the popular public choice. Often times, fading the public takes on a negative connotation as being one of the only strategies amateur bettors know how to enact.
After Brady left the Patriots and signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in March of last year, it became clear it was not so much a split between Brady and the Kraft family, but between Brady and Bill Belichick. Patriots fans were faced with a decision: continue to root for their team and Belichick, who, it is widely believed, just let Brady go, or defect and throw their support behind their beloved quarterback.
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What Does Fade Mean In Betting
The two sides of fans argued throughout the past year about whether the Patriots' success was more because of Brady or Belichick and which will be more successful without the other. But now Belichick is off to Nantucket and Brady is in the Super Bowl as a 3-point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs.
New England is a funny place, full of people who are set in their ways and devoted to their sports teams. This makes the departure of the region's god, Brady, an interesting study. When I polled Twitter asking Patriots fans if they'll be betting on Brady in the Super Bowl, the majority said they plan to put their money on the GOAT. 58.1 percent, to be exact, while 9.3 percent are on Team Belichick, and 32.6 percent not planning to bet on the game.
Patriots fans: Are you planning to bet on Tom Brady in the Super Bowl?
-- Lucy Burdge (@LucilleBurdge) January 25, 2021For me, I know I would still bet on Brady even if he was playing against Jesus Christ himself. Or Michael Scott. When I talked to some of the lifelong Patriots fans I know personally, the sentiment was very much the same, with many planning to root for, or bet on, Brady.
My dad, Charlie, a native Rhode Islander, was conflicted when Brady went to Tampa, but soon started supporting him for his impact as a person.
'I'm rooting for Brady,' he said. 'I didn't know if I would or not until I saw him play in a Tampa uniform. I found myself rooting for him. I root for him now, not only because he did so much for my team but because he's a good guy. I feel I know him. I admire all he's done and is doing for Best Buddies, now as Global Ambassador. I've noticed how his children like being with him. There is no apparent pretense there. He seems to be a positive presence in their lives.'
However, he is not completely on one side of Team Brady vs. Team Belichick.
'Bill Belichick has the same work ethic and competitive drive as Brady,' he said. 'He would have provided Brady with a good team if possible.'
My younger brother, Peter, grew up as probably the biggest Patriots fan I've ever seen--the kind who went right to bed without saying a word after they lost and has a no snacks during games rule so he can focus. When I first asked him in March of 2020 what he thought of Brady heading to the Bucs, he said, 'I'm more of a Belichick guy.'
But he's pulling for Brady in the Super Bowl. Kind of.
'I'm glad for Brady but it's tough to see him win somewhere else,' Peter said. 'I'll be rooting for the Bucs in the Super Bowl, mainly to root against the Chiefs. I think Brady winning would make Belichick look bad, even though there's no way the Patriots would have done well this year with Brady, considering the rest of the roster. I still think letting Brady go was the right decision for both sides.'
However, while he's not rooting for the Chiefs, Peter went on to say he would put money on them if he decides to bet on the game.
'I'd take [Patrick] Mahomes and the Chiefs -3,' he said, betting with his head and not his heart.
What Is A Fade In Sports Betting
My mom, Catherine, is 100 percent rooting for Brady in the Super Bowl because of everything he did for the Patriots and New England.
'As a longtime Patriots fan, I have so many happy memories shared with my family of Brady and the team winning big games,' she said. 'I miss him and I wish he was still with the Pats. Brady is awesome. He's the GOAT. And I will be rooting for him in the Super Bowl. And if I was betting on the game, I would definitely bet on Brady.'
One of my friends Mike, who lives in New Bedford, also said he's pulling for Brady, but not for Brady's fellow former Patriot and current Buccaneers teammate, Rob Gronkowski. And he might not even tune in to watch the game at all because of it.
'I will be rooting for Tom in the Super Bowl, but not Gronk,' Mike said. 'He quit on us. I'm not sure I can watch though. Too painful. Not really in touch with my emotions there. It feels like rooting for an ex-girlfriend who just left you to have a great love life with the next guy.'
Mike also said if he ends up betting on the game, he'll follow one of the most important sports gambling rules.
'Not sure if I'll put anything down on the game yet,' he said. 'But I will say, I know better than to bet against Tom.'
Not everyone is backing Brady on Sunday, however. Thomas Casale, our Managing Editor of Sports Betting, spoke to one of his friends who is a lifelong Patriots fan. He roots for team over players.
Fade In Sports Betting
'No way am I rooting for Brady,' he said. 'I'm a Patriots fan. Unless he shows up wearing a Patriots uniform, I could care less. I don't get attached to players. I'm more worried about how the Pats can trade for Deshaun Watson or Matthew Stafford than I am a billionaire winning another Super Bowl. Come Sunday, I'll be more interested in the Puppy Bowl than the Super Bowl.'
Fade Betting Term
Another one of my friends, John, sees it a different way. He has come to root for players over teams anyway, so supporting Brady is an easy move.
'I am rooting for Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. I've reached a borderline pompous yet self-actualized point of my life in which I've separated player from franchise,' John said. 'Tom Brady has given me some of the best memories of my life. He outshines the sun on the big stage time and time again.'
And summing up Team Brady in a nutshell, John added, 'I guarantee he'll blow us all away yet again next Sunday. And when Bill Belichick turns his lonely eyes south, Brady can finally look down at The Hoodie and say, 'I have no father.'
Fade In Betting
Lucy is a sports betting content producer with Radio.com and BetQL. She has worked with WEEI and Radio.com as a writer, radio producer and podcaster. Lucy lives in Boston and loves Tom Brady and prop bets. Follow Lucy on Twitter at @LucilleBurdge.